The article I read was titled What Will the Next Influenza Pandemic Look Like, and it was published on the Scientific American website on September 9, 2011 by Katherine Harmon. The article seems to have spurned from the release of the movie Contagion, also released in 2011. The article was exceedingly straight forward and easy to comprehend for those not versed in scientific jargon.
The article began by referencing the Flu epidemic that the movie Contagion had; citing a mortality rate of 60%, a grotesquely high number. It noted that the influenza outbreak in 2009 (H1N1), was milder than expected for the strain, incurring some 14,000 deaths worldwide. It emphasized that researchers began speaking to the public and urging caution not to cause widespread panic, but to alert others about the potential dangers of the flu virus.
The author went on to talk about the fact that the virulence of the virus sprung from it's ability to mutate quickly. Researchers showed that the virus could change at an alarming rate when changed in the respiratory cells of certain mammalians.
'To help answer this question, Ron Fouchier, also of Erasmus Medical Center, and his team "mutated the hell out of H5N1" and looked at how readily it would bind with cells in the respiratory tract. What they found is that with as few as five single mutations it gained the ability to latch onto cells in the nasal and tracheal passageways, which, Fouchier added as understated emphasis, "seemed to be very bad news."'
Needless to say, the H5N1 flu is clearly one of scientist biggest worries at the moment. They found that after giving the virus to Ferrets (apparently the best animals to use to observe the virus), after a measly ten mutations, the strain became as easily to transmit as the seasonal flu.
Aside from how worrisome that last bit is, I found it interesting to note that the article mentions scientists placing emphasis on the flu in the media in order to get more funding. To have it said in print is amazing, given how often we at times overreact to such things. I also find it clever, as I'm sure they got a lot more funding that year in the research facility when H1N1 broke out again. Though, I will say that it does make a good point when it talks about our lack of preparedness worldwide for such events on a large scale. Should we ever actually need to react incredibly we may not be able to. I imagine this would be especially difficult in places where they are still considered a third world country. What do you guys think, would we be prepared?
This article relates directly to what we have been discussing in class the last few days. The process of a virus mutating through antigenic drift is often times not a big deal but on rare occasions can be deadly. In the case of H5N1 or virus strains like it we could potentially be in a lot of trouble. It's hard to be prepared when new strains seem to just pop up out of no where. There needs to be better global awareness of this sort of potential especially since the world is so interconnected now; if one area of the world becomes infected, the whole rest of the world is at risk as well. But, there's not really much that can be done due to all the different possibilities that could be created. Precautionary measures could be taken but the best way to really be as ready as we can be is to expect the unexpected.
ReplyDeleteThat's an excellent point, but then the question becomes when are we preparing too much and wasting resources on something that isn't perhaps as dangerous as it seems? Not that it isn't dangerous but I'm almost certain that it's an argument some use to justify not funding these programs.
ReplyDeleteI was not aware that the strain of flu that scientists are most worried about is H5N1. I thought that we were still concerned with the H1N1 that came up in 1918 and, as brought up in the article, recently around the world. With that said, they definatly need to do a better job in making sure everyone knows what is out there and what can affect us, because that way the scientists can get more money, and they will be able to find vaccines to help us against these diseases faster. That alone will help us to be ready for the unexpected, if only a little bit.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the U.S is well prepared if there were to ever be a H5N1 pandemic, because it is so over stressed in the media. In class in the beginning of the year we talked about how the health organizations run adds to promote hand washing, the use of hand sanitizer and more. But apart from the U.S I don't not believe the rest of the world is prepared at all. If the H5N1 were to become a major pandemic, 3rd world countries would have most likely major death rates. I believe that the U.S should promote preparation for flus but on a global level.
ReplyDeleteAs demonstrated in the movie Contagion, I don't think that the US is prepared at all to deal with an outbreak of any kind. Though the government may have us believe that we are prepared, I would disagree, and judging by Ron Fouchier's tone, he disagrees as well. I am curious as to what future generations will consider 'crazy' or 'irrational' in terms of our treatments and protocol. I believed this before I read this post, and it has further convinced me of my belief. Yes, we (scientists) know much about the human body and even disease, but not enough.
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